64% of Filipinos now distrust China, reversing a multi-year decline as West Philippine Sea tensions boil over

Courtesy: OCTAResearch

Public distrust among Filipinos toward China surged by nine percentage points in the second quarter of 2026, completely reversing a two-year downward trend, a new independent survey by OCTA Research revealed on Wednesday.

The nationwide Tugon ng Masa poll, conducted from July 4 to 11, 2026, showed that 64 percent of adult Filipinos now distrust China. This is a sharp increase from the 55 percent distrust rating recorded in March 2026. Conversely, only 14 percent of respondents expressed trust in Beijing, while 21 percent remained undecided.

Spike Tied to Arbitral Ruling Anniversary

According to OCTA Research, the timing of the poll and the shifting numbers suggest that local public sentiment is highly reactive to media coverage and political developments regarding regional maritime disputes.

The survey period directly coincided with intense public discourse surrounding the 10th anniversary of the landmark 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling, which invalidated Beijing's expansive claims over the West Philippine Sea.

"The findings suggest that Filipino public opinion is highly responsive to the information environment surrounding the West Philippine Sea," OCTA Research stated in its report. The think tank noted that when the issue dominates headlines, public wariness toward China spikes significantly.

Survey Breakdown

A closer look at the data shows that public hostility is deeply rooted, with the negative sentiment split between 37 percent who "somewhat distrust" and 27 percent who "strongly distrust" China.

The non-commissioned survey interviewed 1,200 respondents aged 18 and above nationwide using face-to-face methods. It has a ±3 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level.