PAGASA Raises El Niño Alert: Drier Conditions Expected Through Early 2027

Photo: DOST- PAGASA

DOST-PAGASA has officially raised its ENSO Alert and Warning System to El Niño Alert after climate models showed a 79% chance of the phenomenon developing between June and August 2026. Experts warn that these conditions are likely to persist until early 2027. 

Key Details of the Advisory:

Current Status: The Philippines remains under ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña), though ocean temperatures in the Pacific are trending warmer.

Dry Forecast: The onset of El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall, which may lead to dry spells and droughts in various parts of the country.

Monsoon Exception: Despite the dry outlook, the western sections of the country may still experience above-normal rainfall during the Habagat (Southwest Monsoon) season.

Trigger for Alert: Under PAGASA's system, an "Alert" is issued when there is a 70% or higher probability of El Niño developing within the next two to three months.

The state weather bureau will continue to closely monitor these developments and advises the public to take precautionary measures against potential water shortages and heat-related risks.